Los factores domésticos en la supervivencia de los ministros de Relaciones Exteriores en América Latina (1945-2020)

Authors

  • Pedro Feliú Ribeiro Universidad de San Pablo
  • Camilo López Burian Universidad de la República - UdelaR

Abstract

This paper studies the incidence of domestic factors on ministerial survival in the Foreign Affairs portfolio of the Latin American countries in the period 1945-2020. We use our own database that covers seven countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay), 289 foreign affairs ministers. Through Kaplan-Meier curves we illustrate ministerial survival, comparing between countries, and with a Cox regression model we find as survival factors: the increase in GDP per capita of the country, the legislative power of the president, and being part of the political group of the president. Contrary to what has been suggested by the literature, as a risk factor we find previous political experience. Through a case in the Uruguayan government (2005-2010) we analyze how these factors operate on ministerial survival.

Keywords:

Política Exterior, América Latina, Factores Domésticos, Supervivencia Ministerial.

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